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Google earnings coming

Richard L. Brandt [PersonRank 3]

Thursday, October 19, 2006
14 years ago2,680 views

Google reports earnings tomorrow afternoon, and i think the analysts making predictions are smoking something.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect:
Google will earn $2.42 per share
Revenues will be $1.81 billion
(from AP via Business Week) businessweek.com/ap/financialn ...

My prediction:
Google will earn $2.54 per share
Revenues will be $2.7 billion

I think I'm being conservative. I explain how I got the numbers on my blog
richardbrandt.blogs.com/

But I'm not a professional analyst, so no NOT take my guess seriously. Still, I can't wait to compare with actual results.

/pd [PersonRank 10]

14 years ago #

i think some predications are here too;

"fwd high of $482- $490 – before the bell sounds. "

finance.google.com/group/googl ...

Interesting your predications indicate "Revenues will be $2.7 billion" vs "Revenues will be $1.81 billion" of others predications.

thats a hifty 9% or so above demarc. Your raising the bar.!! Is this because of forthcoming the Ad revenue values predications ??

:)-

Richard L. Brandt [PersonRank 3]

14 years ago #

Somebody pointed out that the analysts were reporting revenues, minus the commissions paid to partners--net acquisitions costs--while I was looking at Google's gross revenues. That puts them more in line with my estimates.

But then, Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry wrote in a research note, “This quarter, ad networks are pushing 15 percent more ads to Google at the expense of Yahoo and others.” He expects a positive earnings surprise. Maybe my estimate of 9% increase is too low.
redherring.com/Article.aspx?a= ...

Richard L. Brandt [PersonRank 3]

14 years ago #

Results are in.

Revenues: $2.69 billion ($1.87 billion excluding traffic acquisition costs)
Earnings $2.62 a share (excluding one-time charges.)

/pd [PersonRank 10]

14 years ago #

60 percent of its total revenue from its own sites.
Gross revenue rose 70 percent to $2.69 billion, topping the average Wall Street forecast of $2.62 billion,

..."The stock should be going up from here." " :)-

/pd [PersonRank 10]

14 years ago #

anyone got the ppt's for this afternoons concall ? could you point me!!

TIA

Richard L. Brandt [PersonRank 3]

14 years ago #

yeah, but i was closer than the professional analysts :)

/pd [PersonRank 10]

14 years ago #

richard .. yeah, that was wacky :)- we were net neting a 59% gross ...but it's way above that!! Kudo to you for being closer then the WSA's :)_

anyhoot , heres some live bloggin note

bloggingstocks.com/2006/10/19/ ...

Mambo [PersonRank 10]

14 years ago #

On a more novice note, is everything going well for Google in this quarter?

Richard L. Brandt [PersonRank 3]

14 years ago #

Google has momentum, and momentum does not end quickly. The cost of the YouTube acquisition will show up in the current quarter. Since more stock will be issued, the price/earnings ratio should go down. But I don't see anything to slow Google's momentum this quarter. Its percentage of online advertising keeps growing.

/pd [PersonRank 10]

14 years ago #

===>"Since more stock will be issued, the price/earnings ratio should go down"

But why increase the Stock issuance in Q4/06 ??

Richard L. Brandt [PersonRank 3]

14 years ago #

They'll probably issue more stock to pay for Youtube, which is an all-stock transaction.

/pd [PersonRank 10]

14 years ago #

But wont that make logical sense to do so in Q1/07 ?? not at the q406 closure which can and will reduce EPS ?

Kevin [PersonRank 0]

14 years ago #

well, if they get to choose (which they may not depending on SEC rules on M&A) q4 is traditionally the strongest w/ holiday spending so they might be able to reduce the dilution

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