Internally, Google also uses a “predictive market system” to try forecast “product launch dates, new office openings, and many other things of strategic importance to Google”, to quote from a Google blog post on the subject.
A classic introductory work on the subject is the book The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki. Wikipedia in regards to this book explains the thesis that “a diverse collection of independently-deciding individuals is likely to make certain types of decisions and predictions better than individuals or even experts.” The article adds that four elements are needed for a “wise crowd”: diversity of opinion; independence; decentralization; and aggregation.
[Thanks Xujie and Jérôme!]
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