Google reports earnings tomorrow afternoon, and i think the analysts making predictions are smoking something.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect:
Google will earn $2.42 per share
Revenues will be $1.81 billion
(from AP via Business Week) http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8KQH6480.htm
My prediction:
Google will earn $2.54 per share
Revenues will be $2.7 billion
I think I'm being conservative. I explain how I got the numbers on my blog
http://richardbrandt.blogs.com/
But I'm not a professional analyst, so no NOT take my guess seriously. Still, I can't wait to compare with actual results. |
i think some predications are here too;
"fwd high of $482- $490 – before the bell sounds. "
http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.694653/browse_thread/thread/6e3b2aa06a8300c8
Interesting your predications indicate "Revenues will be $2.7 billion" vs "Revenues will be $1.81 billion" of others predications.
thats a hifty 9% or so above demarc. Your raising the bar.!! Is this because of forthcoming the Ad revenue values predications ??
:)- |
Somebody pointed out that the analysts were reporting revenues, minus the commissions paid to partners--net acquisitions costs--while I was looking at Google's gross revenues. That puts them more in line with my estimates.
But then, Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry wrote in a research note, “This quarter, ad networks are pushing 15 percent more ads to Google at the expense of Yahoo and others.” He expects a positive earnings surprise. Maybe my estimate of 9% increase is too low.
http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=19268&hed=All+Eyes+on+Google§or=Industries&subsector=InternetAndServices
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Results are in.
Revenues: $2.69 billion ($1.87 billion excluding traffic acquisition costs)
Earnings $2.62 a share (excluding one-time charges.)
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60 percent of its total revenue from its own sites.
Gross revenue rose 70 percent to $2.69 billion, topping the average Wall Street forecast of $2.62 billion,
..."The stock should be going up from here." " :)- |
anyone got the ppt's for this afternoons concall ? could you point me!!
TIA |
yeah, but i was closer than the professional analysts :) |
richard .. yeah, that was wacky :)- we were net neting a 59% gross ...but it's way above that!! Kudo to you for being closer then the WSA's :)_
anyhoot , heres some live bloggin note
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/10/19/liveblogging-googles-third-quarter-2006-earnings/ |
On a more novice note, is everything going well for Google in this quarter? |
Google has momentum, and momentum does not end quickly. The cost of the YouTube acquisition will show up in the current quarter. Since more stock will be issued, the price/earnings ratio should go down. But I don't see anything to slow Google's momentum this quarter. Its percentage of online advertising keeps growing. |
===>"Since more stock will be issued, the price/earnings ratio should go down"
But why increase the Stock issuance in Q4/06 ?? |
They'll probably issue more stock to pay for Youtube, which is an all-stock transaction. |
But wont that make logical sense to do so in Q1/07 ?? not at the q406 closure which can and will reduce EPS ? |
well, if they get to choose (which they may not depending on SEC rules on M&A) q4 is traditionally the strongest w/ holiday spending so they might be able to reduce the dilution |
